Pugel 17e · Chapter 21

International Lending and Financial Crises

International Lending and Financial Crises International capital movements can bring major gains both to the lending or investing countries and to the borrowing countries, through intertemporal trade and through portfolio diversification for the lenders/investors. But international lending and borrowing sometimes is not well-behaved—financial crises are recurrent. This chapter examines both the gains from well-behaved lending and borrowing and what we know about international financial crises.

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学习目标

掌握本章围绕 Gains and Losses from Well-Behaved International Lending、International Lending to Developing Countries、Reducing the Frequency of Financial Crises 所展开的国际金融分析框架。
能够把教材中的概念、案例与图示转化为汇率、资本流动或开放宏观情景分析。
能够结合题库与章节 handout，完成课堂讨论、案例分析与 AI 辅助备课。

1. 教材概览与章节导入

International Lending and Financial Crises

International capital movements can bring major gains both to the lending or investing countries and to the borrowing countries, through intertemporal trade and through portfolio diversification for the lenders/investors. But international lending and borrowing sometimes is not well-behaved—financial crises are recurrent. This chapter examines both the gains from well-behaved lending and borrowing and what we know about international financial crises.

We begin with the economic analysis of international capital flows that focuses on the stock of wealth of two countries and how that wealth can be lent or invested in the two countries. With no international lending, the country that has much wealth relative to its domestic investment opportunities will have a lower rate of return or interest rate. Freeing international capital flows permits the low-rate country to lend to the high-rate country. As the world shifts to an equilibrium with free capital movements, both countries gain. As usual, however, within each country there are groups that gain and groups that lose from the international lending.

延伸思考

本章对应 Pugel 17e 的 Chapter 21，已直接从 ai-course 权威教材知识库接入。

2. 核心知识点

Gains and Losses from Well-Behaved International Lending：International capital movements can bring major gains both to the lending or investing countries and to the borrowing countries, through intertemporal trade and through portfolio diversification for the lenders/investors. But international lending and borrowing sometimes is not well-behaved—financial crises are recurrent.

International Lending to Developing Countries：International lending and borrowing often is well-behaved, but not always. The chapter next examines financial crises in developing countries during 1982 to 2002. Following defaults in the 1930s, lending from industrialized countries to developing countries was low for four decades. Such lending dramatically increased in the 1970s for four reasons.

Reducing the Frequency of Financial Crises：We now are paying more attention to finding ways to reduce the likelihood or frequency of financial crises in developing countries. Some proposals for improved practices in borrowing countries, including better macroeconomic policies, better disclosure of information and data, avoiding government short-term borrowing denominated in foreign currencies, and better regulation of banks, enjoy widespread support.

Financial Crises: What Can and Does Go Wrong：International capital movements can bring major gains both to the lending or investing countries and to the borrowing countries, through intertemporal trade and through portfolio diversification for the lenders/investors. But international lending and borrowing sometimes is not well-behaved—financial crises are recurrent.

Resolving Financial Crises：International Lending and Financial Crises

Sometimes international lending is not well- behaved.
In a developing-country
financial crisis
Sound national macroeconomic policies
Timely and accurate data reports
Avoiding short-term borrowing denominated in foreign currencies
Five major forces:
Waves of overlending and overborrowing
2. Exogenous negative international shocks
Rescue packages:
May include loans that compensate for the lack of private lending during the crisis.
Restore investor confidence by replenishing official reserve holdings.

3. 案例与应用

Crisis struck in 1982, when first Mexico and then many other ...：Crisis struck in 1982, when first Mexico and then many other developing countries declared that they could not repay. The crisis was brought on by rising interest rates in the United States, which raised the cost of servicing the loans, and declining export earnings for the debtor developing countries, as the industrialized countries endured a deep recession.

Argentina pegged its peso to the U.S. dollar and succeeded in ...：Argentina pegged its peso to the U.S. dollar and succeeded in ending its hyperinflation in the early 1990s. However, the peso experienced an increase in its real effective exchange rate value, and an extended recession began in 1998. The fiscal deficit widened, and the IMF stopped lending to it in late 2001. In early 2002 the government ended the pegged exchange rate and the peso lost three-fourths of its value relative to the U.S.

Financial crises also hit industrialized countries, and the chapter conc ...：Financial crises also hit industrialized countries, and the chapter concludes with an examination of the global financial and economic crisis. The crisis began in the United States, which had experienced a credit boom and a bubble in house prices. As the house price bubble began to deflate in 2006, an increasing number of mortgages went into default.

The first explanation is overlending and overborrowing. This can occur w ...：The first explanation is overlending and overborrowing. This can occur when the government borrows and guarantees private borrowing, and lenders view this as low risk. The box on “The Special Case of Sovereign Debt” uses a benefit-cost analysis to show when a sovereign debtor would default. The Asian crisis showed that overlending and overborrowing could occur with private borrowers as well, especially if rising stock and land prices show high returns until the bubble bursts.

延伸思考

章节页下方已提供 handout 全文，便于继续查看完整案例与题库结构。

4. 习题与答案导向

本章题库共 60 题。页面正文展示精选题目，完整题库与答案可在全文 handout 或 JSON 下载中继续使用。

题目 1：________ refer(s) to purchasing shares in a foreign enterprise largely owned and controlled by the investor. | 答案：B · Direct investment
题目 2：Official lending and investing are usually done by | 答案：C · governments or multilateral institutions.
题目 3：From pre-World War II years to the early 1980s, which one of the following countries was the principal lender in the world? | 答案：A · The United States
题目 4：The largest net international lenders since 1980 have been | 答案：D · Japan and Germany.
题目 5：From the early 1980s through today, the largest net borrower in the world has been | 答案：A · the United States.
题目 6：Since 2000, developing countries received large net capital inflows in the form of | 答案：A · foreign direct investments.
题目 7：Which of the following is a major benefit of international lending? | 答案：D · It allows some lenders to shift their lending to foreign borrowers who are willing to pay higher interest rates on the loans..
题目 8：If international financial transactions are prohibited | 答案：C · lenders in the richer countries will probably earn low rates of return.

PPT / 板书主线

以下条目来自教材课件提纲，可直接作为课堂投影目录。

International Lending
International Lending Benefits
Gains and Losses from Well-Behaved International Lending
Taxes on International Lending
Actual International Lending
International Lending to Developing Countries
The Surge in International Lending 1974-1982
The Debt Crisis of 1982
The Resurgence of Capital Flows in the 1990s
The Mexican Crisis 1994-1995
The Asian Crisis 1997
Exchange Rates, Asian Countries 1994-2018

授课提示

优先按 slide outline 组织板书或 PPT：本章共 36 个课件主题。
结合 7 个知识点与 4 个案例，把抽象金融变量落到真实政策或市场情景。
课堂上可先讲概念与机制，再打开 NextFinance 的变量页完成第二轮数据验证。

课堂任务

题目 1：________ refer(s) to purchasing shares in a foreign enterprise largely owned and controlled by the investor.
题目 2：Official lending and investing are usually done by
题目 3：From pre-World War II years to the early 1980s, which one of the following countries was the principal lender in the world?
题目 4：The largest net international lenders since 1980 have been
题目 5：From the early 1980s through today, the largest net borrower in the world has been

平台联动作业

进入 NextFinance 对应变量页，判断本章机制在现实市场中的主要观察指标。
结合章节案例，写一段“金融变量如何影响贸易与投资”的分析摘要。

互动与 AI 助学

即时反馈自测、翻转概念卡、一键复制提示词到大模型，以及下方沙盘动手实验。

题 1/2：「突然停止」通常指？

NextFinance 数据与情景入口

教材 handout 全文

这里保留 ai-course 中对应章节的 handout 全文，方便直接用于备课、问答与 AI 检索。

展开全文

# 第21章 International Lending and Financial Crises

## 章节概览
International Lending and Financial Crises International capital movements can bring major gains both to the lending or investing countries and to the borrowing countries, through intertemporal trade and through portfolio diversification for the lenders/investors. But international lending and borrowing sometimes is not well-behaved—financial crises are recurrent. This chapter examines both the gains from well-behaved lending and borrowing and what we know about international financial crises.

## 知识点
### 1. Gains and Losses from Well-Behaved International Lending
- 教学说明：International capital movements can bring major gains both to the lending or investing countries and to the borrowing countries, through intertemporal trade and through portfolio diversification for the lenders/investors. But international lending and borrowing sometimes is not well-behaved—financial crises are recurrent.
- 来源类型：manual

### 2. International Lending to Developing Countries
- 教学说明：International lending and borrowing often is well-behaved, but not always. The chapter next examines financial crises in developing countries during 1982 to 2002. Following defaults in the 1930s, lending from industrialized countries to developing countries was low for four decades. Such lending dramatically increased in the 1970s for four reasons.
- 支撑要点：Sometimes international lending is not well- behaved.
- 支撑要点：In a developing-country
- 支撑要点：financial crisis
- 来源类型：manual

### 3. Reducing the Frequency of Financial Crises
- 教学说明：We now are paying more attention to finding ways to reduce the likelihood or frequency of financial crises in developing countries. Some proposals for improved practices in borrowing countries, including better macroeconomic policies, better disclosure of information and data, avoiding government short-term borrowing denominated in foreign currencies, and better regulation of banks, enjoy widespread support.
- 支撑要点：Sound national macroeconomic policies
- 支撑要点：Timely and accurate data reports
- 支撑要点：Avoiding short-term borrowing denominated in foreign currencies
- 来源类型：manual

### 4. Financial Crises: What Can and Does Go Wrong
- 教学说明：International capital movements can bring major gains both to the lending or investing countries and to the borrowing countries, through intertemporal trade and through portfolio diversification for the lenders/investors. But international lending and borrowing sometimes is not well-behaved—financial crises are recurrent.
- 支撑要点：Five major forces:
- 支撑要点：Waves of overlending and overborrowing
- 支撑要点：2. Exogenous negative international shocks
- 来源类型：manual

### 5. Resolving Financial Crises
- 教学说明：International Lending and Financial Crises
- 支撑要点：Rescue packages:
- 支撑要点：May include loans that compensate for the lack of private lending during the crisis.
- 支撑要点：Restore investor confidence by replenishing official reserve holdings.
- 来源类型：manual

### 6. International Lending Benefits
- 教学说明：International Lending and Financial Crises
- 支撑要点：It represents an
- 支撑要点：intertemporal trade
- 支撑要点：, in which the lender gives up resources today in order to get more in the future, and the borrower gets resources today but must be willing to pay back more in the future.
- 来源类型：manual

### 7. Taxes on International Lending
- 教学说明：6. With free international lending Japan lends 1,800 (= 6,000 − 4,200) to America, at point T. If Japan and America each impose a 2 percent tax on international lending, the total tax is 4 percent. The gap WZ restores equilibrium, and the amount lent internationally declines to 600 (= 6,000 − 5,400). The interest rate in Japan (and the one received net of taxes by Japan’s international lenders) is 3 percent and the interest rate in America (and the one paid including taxes by America’s international borrowers) is 7 percent.
- 支撑要点：We have compared free international lending with no international lending and have found the orthodox result: Freedom raises world product and national incomes.
- 支撑要点：Another standard result also carries over from trade analysis: the
- 支撑要点：nationally optimal tax.
- 来源类型：manual

## 案例
### 案例 1: Crisis struck in 1982, when first Mexico and then many other ...
Crisis struck in 1982, when first Mexico and then many other developing countries declared that they could not repay. The crisis was brought on by rising interest rates in the United States, which raised the cost of servicing the loans, and declining export earnings for the debtor developing countries, as the industrialized countries endured a deep recession.

### 案例 2: Argentina pegged its peso to the U.S. dollar and succeeded in ...
Argentina pegged its peso to the U.S. dollar and succeeded in ending its hyperinflation in the early 1990s. However, the peso experienced an increase in its real effective exchange rate value, and an extended recession began in 1998. The fiscal deficit widened, and the IMF stopped lending to it in late 2001. In early 2002 the government ended the pegged exchange rate and the peso lost three-fourths of its value relative to the U.S.

### 案例 3: Financial crises also hit industrialized countries, and the chapter conc ...
Financial crises also hit industrialized countries, and the chapter concludes with an examination of the global financial and economic crisis. The crisis began in the United States, which had experienced a credit boom and a bubble in house prices. As the house price bubble began to deflate in 2006, an increasing number of mortgages went into default.

### 案例 4: The first explanation is overlending and overborrowing. This can occur w ...
The first explanation is overlending and overborrowing. This can occur when the government borrows and guarantees private borrowing, and lenders view this as low risk. The box on “The Special Case of Sovereign Debt” uses a benefit-cost analysis to show when a sovereign debtor would default. The Asian crisis showed that overlending and overborrowing could occur with private borrowers as well, especially if rising stock and land prices show high returns until the bubble bursts.

## 习题
### 题目 1
________ refer(s) to purchasing shares in a foreign enterprise largely owned and controlled by the investor.
- A) Official capital flows
- B) Direct investment
- C) Short-term lending
- D) Portfolio investment

### 题目 2
Official lending and investing are usually done by
- A) multinational enterprises.
- B) private individuals when purchasing government bonds.
- C) governments or multilateral institutions.
- D) commercial banks.

### 题目 3
From pre-World War II years to the early 1980s, which one of the following countries was the principal lender in the world?
- A) The United States
- B) The United Kingdom
- C) Germany
- D) Japan

### 题目 4
The largest net international lenders since 1980 have been
- A) the United States and china.
- B) the United Kingdom and France.
- C) Russia and Saudi Arabia.
- D) Japan and Germany.

### 题目 5
From the early 1980s through today, the largest net borrower in the world has been
- A) the United States.
- B) the United Arab Emirates.
- C) China.
- D) Japan.

### 题目 6
Since 2000, developing countries received large net capital inflows in the form of
- A) foreign direct investments.
- B) short-term lending.
- C) official loans from foreign governments and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
- D) debt service.

### 题目 7
Which of the following is a major benefit of international lending?
- A) It eliminates exchange rate risk in financial activities.
- B) It requires reducing restrictive international trade practices in the lending and the borrowing countries.
- C) It allows both small countries and large countries to apply similar levels of optimal taxes on the international loans.
- D) It allows some lenders to shift their lending to foreign borrowers who are willing to pay higher interest rates on the loans..

### 题目 8
If international financial transactions are prohibited
- A) lenders in the richer countries will probably earn high rates of return.
- B) borrowers in poorer countries will probably pay low interest rates.
- C) lenders in the richer countries will probably earn low rates of return.
- D) exchange rates cannot remain fixed.

## 参考答案
- 题目 1: 答案：B | 选项内容：Direct investment | Topic：Gains and Losses from Well-Behaved International Lending | Difficulty：1 Easy
- 题目 2: 答案：C | 选项内容：governments or multilateral institutions. | Topic：Gains and Losses from Well-Behaved International Lending | Difficulty：1 Easy
- 题目 3: 答案：A | 选项内容：The United States | Topic：Gains and Losses from Well-Behaved International Lending | Difficulty：1 Easy
- 题目 4: 答案：D | 选项内容：Japan and Germany. | Topic：Gains and Losses from Well-Behaved International Lending | Difficulty：1 Easy
- 题目 5: 答案：A | 选项内容：the United States. | Topic：Gains and Losses from Well-Behaved International Lending | Difficulty：1 Easy
- 题目 6: 答案：A | 选项内容：foreign direct investments. | Topic：Gains and Losses from Well-Behaved International Lending | Difficulty：1 Easy
- 题目 7: 答案：D | 选项内容：It allows some lenders to shift their lending to foreign borrowers who are willing to pay higher interest rates on the loans.. | Topic：Gains and Losses from Well-Behaved International Lending | Difficulty：2 Medium
- 题目 8: 答案：C | 选项内容：lenders in the richer countries will probably earn low rates of return. | Topic：Gains and Losses from Well-Behaved International Lending | Difficulty：2 Medium

## AI / NextLab 使用建议
- NextLab 总览：用贸易分析实验室的理论模块、图表和政策分析工具继续扩展本章内容。 https://digitconnection.ai/nextlab/